Courto Supremo

Sounds like a delicious Taco Bell treat, no?  We’re not talking about immigration here, we’re talking about the SCOTUS, or the Supreme Court of the United States, to anyone who didn’t watch the West Wing.  Let’s look at the numbers, shall we?

The current number of members on the Supreme Court is still 9, as Justice John Paul Stevens (not John Paul Jones) hasn’t quit just yet.  Here are the members as well as their age political orientation:

• Chief Justice John Roberts (50) – Conservative
• Justice John Paul Stevens (90 – Retiring) – Liberal
• Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg (77) – Liberal
• Justice Antonin Scalia (74) – Conservative
• Justice Anthony Kennedy (73) – Moderate/Conservative
• Justice Stephen Breyer (71) – Liberal
• Justice Clarence Thomas (61) – Conservative
• Justice Samuel Alito (60) – Conservative
• Justice Sonia Sotomayor (55) – Liberal

So what does this mean?  As you can see, there’s a 5-4 split, with Kennedy being the swing vote.  And Stevens is on his way out.  The nominee right now is Elena Kagan – we’ll get into her – who seems to be a left-wing moderate, as far as we can tell.  Obama’s chances to appoint judges that are further left has probably passed, as there likely won’t be another opening before the 2010 Congressional elections.  That said, even if he is only here for a single term – which, I have argued, is pretty unlikely – Obama may get to appoint as many as three justices.

When Justices get of a certain age, they will often step down, but lately the trend has been for the right-wingers to step down during right-wing Presidencies, and for the left-wingers to step down during left-wing Presidencies.  Stevens follows that tradition, so more or less, the balance of the court stays the same.

The issue, of course, is death, not resignations.  Scalia and Kennedy are both in their 70’s, so there is a possibility that either of them could die and give Obama the opportunity to swing the court to the left.  Otherwise, you may see Ginsburg or Breyer step down and basically just give Obama the status quo.

There is, of course, Kagan.  The Republicans are feeling a little bit obstruction-y, but she will probably appeal to at least a couple of Senators, which means they would have the ability to override a filibuster, which you’ll probably see coming from some douche like Inhofe.  Inhofe has already decided he won’t vote for her according to CNN, (he is the ONLY Senator to be unprofessional enough to make up his mind before the confirmation proceedings and vetting process),  and he’s known for being anti-gay.

What am I insinuating?  Well, it seems there might be some speculation that Kagan is a lesbian.  She’s not out of the closet, but there’s a lot of speculation.  It isn’t so much of a secret that she is pro-gay, which is a bit of a turn off for the Republicans.  That said, unless a nominee is wildly unqualified – you remember Harriet Miers – they generally get passed.  As far as being unqualified, Kagan doesn’t have any judicial experience, but she was the Dean of the Harvard Law School, has extensive law experience, and has served as the Solicitor General of the US since the beginning of the Obama administration.

So it’s tough to say she’s unqualified, but no judicial experience can be a good excuse to dismiss her because of her political views.

Ultimately, I think a stink might be raised about Kagan, but I think she’ll get through.  Hopefully she won’t be forced to disclose her sexuality, because it has nothing to do with law, and would be a political clusterfrack.

After that, Obama will have to stick with moderates, and it’s a crapshoot as to whether there will be a swinging of the court in the next 2 to 6 years.