2010 Elections Update

I was really tempted to make the subtitle of this article “2010:  A Race Odyssey.”  I feel I deserve some credit for not doing that.  But a little less credit for still mentioning it here.

But let’s do a quick rundown of the 2010 election, shall we?  Here’s where we are.

What’s Clear

The Republicans obviously have the momentum.  Honestly, with the amount of control the Democrats have over Congress, this was more or less inevitable.  Scott Brown may not have been inevitable, but a Republican backlash was.  Obama has learned:  every action has an equal and opposite reaction, unless the action is against the Republicans.  Then it’s much worse.

That said, I don’t see the Republicans taking control of the Senate.  They could pull it into an even 50-50, but there are only 36 seats at stake 18 of which are Democrats.  So the Republicans would have to win all 18 of their races and THEN win HALF of the Democrat incumbent races.  It just seems a little far-fetched.  Possible.  But unlikely.

What’s Unclear

There are still 5 months until the race.  Can momentum stay with the Republicans?  We’re seeing fissures between the Tea Party and the Republican establishment and a general splintering throughout the right.  Libertarians are supporting their own candidates, the Religious Right have their own, the Tea Partiers have their darlings, and the pro-business neocon Old Guard have theirs.  The extent of this splintering is totally unclear.

Will independents take votes from Republican candidates?  Will this usher in more Democrats?  Who has control over the moderates?  Democrats or Republicans?  It’s a really hard call to make.

I don’t think the Republican party will split just yet.  But it does have a number of forces chewing at it.  The Republicans have been very pro-big-business, and that’s not popular among the populists, despite their laissez faire approach to government.  The big banks and the oil companies:  not really seen as friends of the common man.  And the Tea Party, despite their MANY flaws, do realize that Republicans aren’t necessarily aligned with their goals.

The oil spill might galvanize the more environmental left as well.  Oh, so much up in the air!  Discuss.