The Republican Split

Despite the massive problems facing the United States, problems that Barack Obama is expected to fix, the Republicans have a serious uphill battle against them in 2012.  I’d much rather it was close, folks, because it’s more fun to call a close race, but hey, not up to me.  Point being that the Republicans have a new major problem that they’re going to have to deal with sooner rather than later, a problem that is the legacy of George W. Bush and, probably more than anyone else, Karl Rove.

The Religious Right has always existed, but it’s never been straight-up pandered to like it was with Bush and Rove.  Before 2000, and more obviously in 2004, the Christian Conservatives were like any voter bloc:  there was some baby-kissing and handshakes and book signings, there were promises made and broken, there were smiles and speeches of solidarity.  But never before were the Religious Right depended on for the election.

And let’s face it:  The moderate, intellectual right, and the populist, Christian right have relatively little in common.  Let’s break it down along these lines:  The Religious Right is focused on social issues, the intellectual right is focused on economic, governmental issues.

Social issues for the Religious Right include stopping abortion, seeking a less rigid line between Church and State, blocking gay marriage, making English the national language, family values, etc., etc.  The moderate right is focused on small government, big business, and America as the sole world superpower, economically and militarily.

This is all hypothetically speaking of course.  When you step into reality, you find it’s much more complicated than this.  Which is why the split hasn’t happened yet.  There are a lot of contradictions along these lines, for example.  The Religious Right tends to be a populist movement, but it typically doesn’t show a lot of support for usually populist movements like health care (though it DOES have support for education), and a conservative traditionally doesn’t push for the combination of church in state.  That’s the ultimate government interference.

And then there’s the fact that the neoconservative movement that Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld pieced together wasn’t exactly fiscally conservative.  Spending growth under Bush was the fastest since Nixon’s last term.  The Reagan Republicans are torn, because they can’t very well back Obama, but Palin, Huckabee, Cheney, Jeb Bush, and Newt Gingrich wouldn’t exactly be small government, would they?  And that leaves who?  It leaves Jindal and Romney.  Jindal has said he’s running for a second term as Louisiana Governor in 2011, which would more or less make it impossible, and potentially politically suicidal, to run for President in 2012.  So he’s waiting for 2016, most likely.

So the only viable choice is Romney.  He’s a financial wizard.  But he’s a Mormon.  The Evangelical Christian Right does NOT like Mormonism.  They consider it a perversion and an abomination.  Huckabee famously reamed Romney for being a Mormon during the 2008 debates.

And at the same time, Sarah Palin is going balls-to-the-wall, gunning for 2012 with her “Going Rogue” book tour.  Huckabee is trying to build himself up for his next go.  When it comes down to it, the two sides don’t have enough in common to stay together, apart from their scorn for modern center-left and progressive movements.  The ideologically pure Reagan Republican isn’t going to spend time blocking gay marriage when they could be focusing on pork barrel spending, and the ideologically pure Religious Republican won’t give a damn about NAFTA when there are babies being killed.

I’m not predicting a Republican split in 2012.  I’m predicting a Republican loss in 2012.  Followed by a split.  Karl Rove didn’t do the republicans any favors by mobilizing the Religious Right.  He awoke a sleeping giant that went for Bush, but won’t go for Romney.  And right now, the Republicans really don’t have anyone else who can hearken their minds back to the good old Reagan days.  The Republicans are quickly losing their reputation as fiscal conservatives, and as a rule, it’s probably easier to mobilize a bloc that’s motivated by dead babies than it is to mobilize a bloc that’s for responsible spending.  So as the Right aligns itself more with the Evangelicals, it will more and more be betraying it’s economic philosophical roots.  It will become an atavistic relic which will have to collapse before it can reform as a party more relevant to the 21st Century.