Republican Longshots in 2012

There are a couple of other candidates who could potentially run in 2012 who aren’t showing up very prominently on the polls yet, and whose chances we can’t really determine yet.  It’s tempting to define everything for this election in terms of Obama, seeing as the Republicans would love to have some of that grassroots support and universal popularity, but the chance of the Republicans coming up with an out-of-nowhere superstar in the next two years is fairly unlikely; Obama was already making a splash this time four years ago and being talked about as a major contender.  So chances are, we already know the name of the Republican nominee.  It likely won’t be a stranger.  Not that any of the following are strangers.  They’re just long shots, who seem to be eyeing a run, but whose fate largely rests on the circumstances between now and primary time.
Tim Pawlenty
The current Minnesota Governor was on John McCain’s short list for VP in 2008, and perhaps when we discuss him, we should in those terms.  He’s a fairly uncontroversial, middle-of-the-road Republican, and he’s stepping down from the Governorship of Minnesota in 2010, so he’ll be free in 2012.  A Rasmussen poll of Minnesota voters in 2008 found that 61% of those polled believed he shouldn’t run for President, which is not much of a vote of confidence.  He’s an Evangelical, but he’s not outspoken, and he doesn’t seem to have a ton of drawing power in comparison to Huckabee, Romney, and Palin.  Look for Pawlenty as another potential VP candidate in 2012.
Newt Gingrich
Newt Gingrich.  Flashback, huh?  Really, he has a chance though, and has a bit more potential of gaining in the polls than Tim Pawlenty.  He’s associated with the heyday of House Republicanism in the 90’s. Though his efforts back then kind of imploded on themselves, he’s still relatively popular among Republicans, and could have a “former Glory” effect that could be very useful in 2012, especially if Republicans are able to draw similarities between Obama and Clinton.  Also, Americans have notoriously short memories, so failed policies don’t necessarily have to be a hindrance.  Newt’s good as an attack dog, too, which neither Romney nor Huckabee really are, and his opinions are sufficiently middle-of-the-road stock Reagan Republican viewpoints.  So he could upset Romney for the Reagan vote.  But it’ll be a while before we know.
Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush has 10,000 things working against him, and they are all related to his last name.  Bush II did not end on a popular note, so unless massive payoff of Bush policy in the next two years start showing up, unless Obama is truly a disastrous failure, Jeb Bush will probably not even try at the Presidency.  The truth is, he was expected in the 90’s to be running rather than W., but something happened, and he became Governor of Florida during the 2000 election.  Really, I don’t see this happening, but he’s getting buzz, and after the failures of Bush I, Bush II got elected, so I guess don’t put anything past this family.
Dick Cheney
Again, I don’t know why he’s getting any buzz.  It would seem the neocons have already hit the climax of their political careers and are beginning their descent, but who knows?  Dick Cheney has remained conspicuously in the spotlight since leaving his Vice Presidency, and, despite being extremely unpopular, he’s got a following.  Personally, I think if Cheney is nominated, it’ll be a certain loss for the Republicans, no matter what happens, and I question if Cheney even wants to be President.  He certainly has the ability to influence policy outside the White House.
Rudy Giuliani
Another long, long shot.  Giuliani made his reputation cleaning up New York and in his spectacular handling of the September 11th attacks, but he lost that reputation later by displaying his willingness to exploit his role on 9/11 to get into office.  He came across as a sleazy opportunist, and I don’t think that image has left him.  While he may get Governorship in New York next year, I think he just doesn’t have the political chops to make a Presidential run.
There are more people, of course, but none who are very likely (even among THIS list).  There’s Mark Sanford, who still wants it apparently, but you can’t have your Argentine mistress and the presidency too.  There’s Rick Santorum, who coined the term “Islamo-fascism,” and frankly is kind of an idiot.  And then there’s the smattering of Governors and Reps who have higher political ambitions, but who’ll probably have to jockey their positions in 2012 for a shot at 2016 or 2020.