Betting Odds for Republicans in 2012
The question of the 2012 election right now is: Obama vs. Who? And that’s a fair question, because the 2008 election damn near destroyed the Republican Party. Watching Obama’s campaign was like looking at a piece of fine art pummel an old man in the crotch for 4 months. The old man? He’s out. He was too old for 2008, he’ll be way too old for 2012, and he made a major mistake which put his decision making ability into serious doubt. Ironically, that mistake is now a frontrunner for 2012, and is doing a PR tour for her memoir, which is named after the phrase that has come to represent her sabotaging of old man’s Presidential Run. Sarah Palin is going Rogue, and running for President. But there are other, possibly safer bets to be made.
(For the record, we’ll be going into a LOT more detail on all of these candidates, but for now, we’re going to do a rundown of possibilities)
All candidates are ranked according to www.1800-sports.com betting odds. Go to Vegas and gamble with our nations future! (Just a note on the odds site: It isn’t necessarily up-to-date, as it gave Mark Sanford 14:1 odds, and I’m pretty sure that’s too generous, given as he’s probably going to defect to Argentina to be with his soulmate)
1) Mitt Romney – Vegas Says: 4:1 – While Romney may seem the most practical choice for 2012, he may have a few things working against him. For one thing, he’s a Mormon, which may make some of the Republican’s conservative base a little wary, and for another thing, he’s a capitalist businessman, not a populist. For George Bush, that wasn’t a problem, thanks to W.’s folksy, down-home aphorisms and Texan accent, but Romney’s a Harvard-educated Massachusettian, so that might be another strike against him. The question is, can he appeal to enough of the Republican’s far-right base to hold the party, and enough of the moderate base to win against Obama? On paper, he has the best chance, but look for the Republicans to respond to Obamania by going for a minority populist candidate like Bobby Jindal.
2) Sarah Palin – Vegas Says: 4:1 – Sarah Palin may have a decent chance at winning the Republican nomination, but she doesn’t have much of a chance at winning the election. Granted, she’s got a rather large base, but outside of that base – even inside more moderate or intellectual Republican circles – she’s not well liked. At all. She turned the McCain campaign into her own platform, and it wasn’t for no reason that John McCain performed in an SNL skit with Tina Fey as Palin who was campaigning for 2012 behind his back before election day. Palin may have energized the Republican base for a short period when she was announced in August ‘08, but after that, every time she stepped into the limelight, bad things happened. Moderate Republicans will probably go to great lengths to sabotage her nomination, and I suspect they’ll succeed.
3) Bobby Jindal – Vegas Says: 7:1 – I have to disagree with Vegas here. I’d put him higher. Granted, he’s said he isn’t going to run, but Obama didn’t think he’d run until his famous Democratic Convention speech. Jindal was given the response to Obama’s first address to Congress, and his aw-shucks, populist conservative attitude is kind of an ace-in-the-hole for Republicans. He’s well liked in Louisiana, where he’s the governor, and, if I can be cynical for a second, he’s a minority. Score and score. I don’t see him having the same fighting chances as Romney, but in terms of likeability, I’d put Jindal higher, and say keep an eye out for him in 2016 or beyond.
4) Mike Huckabee – Vegas Says: 7:1 – Mike Huckabee is the best thing to happen to the Christian Conservative movement since Jesus invented speaking in tongues. He’s personable, self-effacing, likeable, and unlike 99.9% of all politicians, he can hold his own against Jon Stewart. Quite a feat. Despite this, he’s probably going to lose a significant portion of the Religious Right vote to Sarah Palin, who’s more of an attack dog and seen as the American renegade stereotype. And honestly, the Religious Right can’t win an election by itself, let alone a split primary. So Huckabee will have to strategically bring himself more and more into the spotlight, while hoping that Sarah Palin sabotages herself again. And hey, she probably will. Again and again.
Those are today’s front-runners, but you can expect that to change. Waiting in the wings is Tim Pawlenty, Governor of Minnesota, conservative legend Newt Gingrich, nepotism-be-damned standard-bearer Jeb Bush, Hero General David Petraeus, and, if he doesn’t split for the Libertarians, Ron Paul. Stay tuned, and tip your bookies!
As an American, I am so proud of Sarah Palin for what she is speaking out about. Have you read her book? I did and it is so well-written. Do you think she will run for President? I hope so, I would volunteer for her campaign. Thank you again for a very educational site. Have a great week!
I’m getting ready to turn 19 and cant wait to vote to make a change i would vote mike huckabee because he would certainly bring christan values back to the United States. Thats what we need someone to stand up for what this country was founed on and give some respect back to the country and ourselfs.
imo,
i am split between who i caucused for last election MIke Huckabee which i still believe is a great canidate and Sarah Palin though she may not win somthing draws me to her realism its almost like she is an open book a real person not disconnected like so many other canidates great blog i enjoy reading it often
scott