2012 Election Overview
The 2012 Election: An Overview
The Backdrop
On November 6, 2012, a mere month and a half before the Mayans speculated the world would end, America will go back to the polls to elect a president. Assuming the Birthers don’t make a breakthrough, the Democratic candidate will be one Barack Hussein Obama II, Democratic wunderkind and all-around spiffy guy. Against him will be… well, shucks, who knows? The splintered Republican field is reuniting under the banner of anti-Socialism, but these many ideologies are having less and less in-common these days. From the Ayn-Randian laissez-faire libertarian economics of Ron Paul to the theocratic idiocracy of Sarah Palin and everything in between, the Republicans are still finding their feet after the Obama Love Train ran them over in 2008. It will be a fight to remember. Or, you know, a pretty forgettable one.
The Stakes
Since we still have two years before the election starts picking up again, it’s hard to say what the sticking points will be. It largely depends on the more long-term effects of Obama policy at home and abroad. The economy was the sticking point of the 2008 election, and it was probably the single greatest reason Obama won. If the economy picks back up, Obama will be vindicated, and no combination of other issues is likely to defeat him. His foreign policy could also end up paying off. In a globalized world, America may have to step away from total economic dominance and towards a more cooperative outlook, which will be a hard sell. But if elected to a second term, Obama, far from being a lame duck, will be no longer beholden to campaign contributors and special interests and will be able to push his real political agendas further than he could in his first terms. And, ironically, the Republican consolidation of Presidential power in the Bush years will make this easier for Barack. The Republicans don’t want this, so the stakes are high.
The Republican Recovery
Since Obama was sworn in, the Republicans have seen a resurgence of support not seen since the Clinton years. Obama, for much of the right, is now a symbol of socialism, and is moving the U.S. towards a more European attitude on the world stage. This is not going over well among the masses, and if there’s one thing the Republicans can do, it’s mobilize. The Democrats aren’t so great at this, but Obama is. If the Republicans can piece together a single coherent platform and find a likeable candidate, they’ll have a chance at 2012. Sarah Palin, despite her fall from grace in Alaska, has gained more prominence since McCain’s loss, and will probably have a decent run for the nomination in 2012. But her strand of uber-nationalistic, ultra-Christian middle-American Republicanism may not appeal to a broad enough base. This is the fissure plaguing the Republican Party today, between the Reagan Conservatives and the Bush Conservatives, the small government right-wingers and the America as a hegemonic Christian crusader conservatives. They had the base to win in ‘04, but can the Republicans do it again in the face of The Titan Obama? Someone get them Karl Rove!
The Electoral Board
Obama, if he wins, is probably not going to win with such a solid thumping as he did in ‘08, unless the Republicans really screw up and nominate the right-wing equivalent of George McGovern for their ‘12 rep. Regardless, the political map of the U.S. is changing, with the old model of the Democrats being concentrated on the coasts and in the cities becoming less and less relevant. Obama mobilized minority voter turnout like never before, and the minorities are quickly becoming the majority. Recessions typically see a growth in urban population, and, as we know, urban centers tend to be further left. Look for the “Red State/Blue State” divide to be changing in 2012.
Possible Game Changers:
-Total Economic Collapse
-Pull-out and subsequent bloodbath in Iraq
-Capture of Bin Laden
-Another terrorist attack within the U.S.
-Republican Party split