2010 in 2012

Ok, so I know this site is about the 2012 election, but let’s look at 2010 for a second.  There’s a lot at stake in 2010, and it could potentially effect the outcome of 2012.  So, let’s see what’s happening:

-36 Senator seats are up for grabs, though two of them aren’t scheduled elections.  One is to fill the seat of Hillary Clinton, who left the post when she was appointed Secretary of State, and the other is to fill the seat of Ted Kennedy, who died a few months ago.  Both of these seats have Governor-appointed acting Senators right now, but will be up for grabs in 2012.  As it stands right now, the Democrats hold 60 of the 100 seats, after Senator Arlen Specter decided to do a little switcheroo this past year.

-The House of Representatives, as it is with every two years, will have elections for every single seat, all 435.  As it stands now, the Democrats hold 257 of the seats, as compared to the Republicans, who have 178.

Ok, so I think it’s relatively safe to say that the Republicans are going to pick up a few seats on both sides.  I doubt Clinton and Kennedy’s seats are going to go to the Republicans, but in more iffy places (particularly swing states), Obama and the Democrats are getting nailed with a populist anti-taxation fervor that would do Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan proud.  That said, the Republicans taking back over would be quite a coup.  I mean, it’s always possible in the House, since all the seats are up for grabs, but keep in mind the incumbent bias that sees 95% of all congressional incumbents getting re-elected year after year.  It’s name branding, and being up there on Capitol Hill every day is a good way to make people remember you.

So what could this mean for 2012?  Well first off, it would change the entire political dynamic in Washington for the next two years of the Obama presidency.  If the Republicans do take over – which they might, but even Dick Cheney isn’t expecting them to regain control – they’ll have much more of a say in dictating Obama’s agenda.  And since they have shown nothing but fear and loathing of Obama, there’s a good chance the President, whose honeymoon has long been over, will have a tough time getting just about anything through.

Now this could be a good or a bad thing.  Obama has shown that he sucks at publicizing his achievements in office.  The things that have been publicized – the Nobel Prize, for example – border on bad press.  So if he can’t make people think he’s getting stuff done now, when he’s been going full throttle for nearly a year, he may be in trouble when he has to face a congress that is looking to sabotage his every move.  2010 could also be the one thing a battered and confused Republican party needs to get back on its footing.

It could, however, backfire on the Republicans.  And make no mistake about it, Republicans know a thing or two about having their best laid schemes backfire like all hell.  If they are too aggressive, and return to Bush era politics, their constituents will likely remember why they voted Barack Obama into office in the first place: precisely because he’s the exact opposite of George Bush, right down to every detail except for gender.

So look for 2010 to play a large role in 2012.