Obama at War

Obama’s made the big decision that may define his presidency:  he’s stepped up the war in Afghanistan.  Whether or not this is a good idea is yet to be seen – and it probably won’t be seen any time soon.  Obama says he’s putting a 3 year deadline on the Afghanistan war, but by the time these troops can be mobilized and placed in Afghanistan, that 3 year spread will be after his re-election or de-election.  So the success of this Afghan surge is crucial.  Afghan President Hamid Karzai is widely being seen as an ineffectual President who isn’t getting done what needs to be done, and he recently won a widely criticized election for another 5 year term.  Unless Karzai can rebuild faith in his corruption-rife government, he’s in deep trouble.  Unless the U.S. can effectively establish a foothold in the Afghan mountains, among the tribes that have never been tamed, unless they can rebuild their infrastructure effectively, the Obama Presidency has a major problem on its hands.  Afghanistan is the place that empires and superpowers go to die.  And the aftermath of Bush’s invasion gave the Taliban and al-Qaeda to regroup.  If these groups get crushed, there will be more that’ll take their place.
The key, Obama should know by now, is to throw his weight behind NGOs and non-affiliated groups like Greg Mortenson’s Central Asia Institute, which builds schools for villages – schools that are merely built by him, not taught by him – which then gives these villagers a place to send their children other than the Saudi-backed Madrassas that litter the mountainsides and teach the mountainmen how to blow themselves up on American tanks.  This is what the country really needs (and, fortunately, Mortenson has just released a sequel to his bestseller Three Cups of Tea explaining why Afghanistan can be fixed with books, not troop surges).
Obama will probably not take heed though.  His generals want troop increases, and he wants to look tough on terror.  A victory in Afghanistan (what is a victory in Afghanistan) will win him an election, but a loss will be much worse than a lost election.  Obama needs to really consider the history of what war has done to presidencies, and what Afghanistan did to the U.S.S.R.  And Britain.  And the Mongols.
Point being, unless Obama proves to be as masterful at war as he is at campaigning, Afghanistan is just another grave he could be digging himself.